The U.S. election is 18 days away
As of today, with 18 days to go until the U.S. election, all U.S. states and districts are ready to start voting by mail. This year, due to the impact of the new crown outbreak, in order not to delay the receipt of postal voting time, the start of the previous general elections have been earlier.
Based on current polls, trump is about 10 points behind Biden. And from the media's point of view, there is a general preference that Biden will win easily. But a closer look at the media coverage reveals that it more or less gives a sense of favoritism toward Biden. Yesterday, in the coverage of Biden and his son, many American media chose to ignore, without any coverage. Two major U.S. social platforms have also censored content and limited traffic. Judging by the enthusiasm of the campaign, while Biden has received record fundraising, he has not seen a more aggressive campaign than Trump.
Interestingly, if we compare our performance four years ago, it's almost at this point that Trump lags behind then-rival Hillary Clinton, and within about 20 days of final polling day, the lead seems to have turned a corner. And from the overall trend of change, this year and four years ago a little similar, but this year's poll volatility appears to be more drastic.
When you look at the polls, it's October 15th, and although Biden has a 3.4-point lead over Clinton that year, Biden's lead has been weakened since September 11th. Even in early October, when Mr. Trump's new crown pneumonia caused an avalanche in the polls, he failed to change Mr. Biden's shrinking lead. At this level, there are insomencencys in the environmental approach of opinion polls and media opinion.
Judging by the current electoral votes, while Biden is likely to win 216 electoral votes, far more than Trump's likely 125, the outcome is hard to predict because of the large number of swing states with 197 votes this year. 10 could end up with more than 270 votes to be elected president.
In detail, Mr. Trump is under pressure, including a sharp drop in support among suburban female voters and the loss of support from some seniors, as well as a wave of early Democratic voting. In that sense, Mr. Trump's re-election challenge may be a thing of the past25 years as presidentthe largest.
It should be hard to shake the attitude of locals in states with strong support, no matter which candidate goes to the ballot, which is especially important in swing states. On the map, there are counties with large electoral votes, including 38 in Texas, 29 in Florida, 20 in Pennsylvania, and so on.
For now, for this year's election, it's basically thereEight key battleground states, respectivelyArizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. With the exception of Georgia, Biden is in the restSeven states are leading in the polls。
The choices in these swing states are based on a variety of factors, including polls, demographics, past and recent election histories, voter registration, interviews with state and local party officials, strategists and pollsters. Campaign teams have also announced their priorities through staffing, resource allocation, television and radio advertising, and candidate visits.
For Mr. Trump, it is necessary to maximize his support among rural voters, stop the decline in suburban support, and winWhite working-class voters who didn't vote in 2016support. For Biden, it will take a lot of support in big cities, especially among African-American voters, to increase his support among Hispanic voters and retake some of the areas that voted for Trump after two votes for former President Barack Obama.
Arizona:11 electoral votes, with Democrats leading by 2% in current polls and Republicans leading by 4% in 2016
In Arizona, Mr. Trump's response to the outbreak has been costly, making him in a situation where he has been at largeThe performance of the over-65s has struggled to keep pace with 2016 levels. Polls in October showed that Biden was undermining Trump's support among older white voters, especially in Maricopa County, once a reliable RepublicanCamp.
Florida:29 electoral votes, with Democrats leading by 3% in current polls and Republicans leading by 1% in 2016
In Florida elections, Republicans usually have a slight advantage in absentee ballots. But this year, at this stage of the general election, Democrats have overtaken Republicans in the polls for the first time and are well ahead. Unprecedented early turnout has excited Democrats, but campaign veterans have warned of a wave of Republican votes on Election Day.
Georgia:16 electoral votes, with Republicans leading by less than 1% in current polls and Republicans leading by 5% in 2016
Much of Georgia's attention this year has been focused on Atlanta's populous suburbs, which have formed strong opposition to Republicans in the Age of Trump, but the result may come down to a lesser-watched force in the state: rural white voters. There is room for Trump's approval ratings to grow in this regard.
Michigan:With 16 electoral votes, Democrats currently have a 6 percent lead in the polls and a narrow Republican victory in 2016
Trump is in the2016Three that might not have won very muchRust Belt stateThis year, the problem remains for the president, which is Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. But Michigan looks the worst. His approval rating among the white working class has declined. experiencedAfter a dismal 2016, black turnout looks certain to rebound. The new law allowing early voting and absentee voting for no reason is expected to put votersDemocrats may benefit from record turnout.
Minnesota:10 electoral votes, with Democrats leading by 9% in current polls and 2% in 2016
In Minnesota,She narrowly lost to Hillary Clinton four years agoSince then, Mr. Trump has focused on the state. But he didn't look like that in the campaignThat won over white and independent voters in 2016. With less than a month to go until the election, his prospects are getting bleaker.
North Carolina:15 electoral votes, with Democrats leading by 2% in current polls and Republicans leading by 4% in 2016
What happens in fast-growing Mecklenburg and Wake counties will beFor a long time after November, the state's political landscape was shaped. The two counties, the state's most populous, are expected to play a decisive role in presidential, competitive Senate and gubernatorial races.
Pennsylvania:20 electoral votes, with Democrats leading by 6% in current polls and Republicans leading by 1% in 2016
For months this summer, Mr. Trump's campaign in Pennsylvania has been moving in the right direction. In.Between July and September,Trump's lead over Biden has halved. But since then, Mr. Trump's lead has stalled and even gone backwards. Polls show Biden now nearing the lead7 percentage points.Trump's precarious leadership in the epidemic is a key reason for his declining poll numbers.
Wisconsin:10 electoral votes, with Democrats leading by 6% in current polls and Republicans leading by 1% in 2016
Over the past month, a flurry of events seems to have worked in the Democratic Party's favor, and that has changedThe pattern of the "rust belt" battlefield. Wisconsin is in its worst outbreak since the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia, alerting voters to the trump administration's inconsistent response and the president's early attempts to ignore the severity of the virus. In addition, because Green Party candidates are not allowed to appear on the ballot papers, it eliminates the possibility that third-party ballots were being sucked away, and it was these votes that led to Mrs. ClintonIn.The 2016 election was narrowly defeated. There are growing signs that the key voters Mr. Trump needs to defeat Mr. Biden, both suburban and swing voters, are moving away from him.
Of course, there are always a lot of unexpected events that affect the outcome in October of every election year, and there's still a lot of uncertainty. That uncertainty won't settle until the final results are known, so it's still not a big deal for 10 candidates on 1 side. For the world, it is bound to keep an eye on the election results, after all, the spillover effects of U.S. policy are an indisputable fact.
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