In the current outbreak of the new crown outbreak, we see a huge amount of information every day, in these complex information, how to make accurate judgments, how to avoid being misled, how to maintain independent thinking, these capabilities are extremely important, so Weixi felt the need to re-push the previous article on "true lies", one of the characteristics of a valuable public number is that its article can often read new, welcome to pay attention to "Weixi finger north"! The following is the full text -

Lies can deceive people, but do you know that you can deceive people without lying?

Today I'm going to talk about a kind of "real lie."Every fact it tells is true, every number is correct, but it succeeds in deceiving us.

Today, nakedly lying media and businesses are afraid to use them blatantly,But the cunning "real lies" that are said today are rife with everyone's livesLet's take a few examples and let's feel it

1. My public numberWeixi refers to the north.There used to beAn article tripled my fan baseDo you think this article is really good?

   In fact, that was my first article, before the article my number of fans is 60, after the article I went to the circle of friends fans grew to 180, and that article is so mediocre that I later deleted it!

2. If a scout doesn't know Ding Junhui, that's when I edit a videoThe 30% clip in it is a good shot of Ding Junhui, and the remaining 70% is a shot of Ding Junhui's mistakeWell, this scout will certainly evaluate Ding Junhui's ball skills very generally.

3. An employee reports to the boss:“Sales of our shoes have fallen by 20% because of the trade war”, another employee reports to the boss:"Despite the trade war, our shoe sales have remained at 80%"Is the god horse the truth?

4. A profile from a self-published media writer reads:2006 Time magazinePerson of the Year, 2008 Moved China Organizing Committee Special Award,Do you think he's at the top of the media pyramid? In fact, the 2006 Time Magazine Person of the Year is "You", that is, all netizens;"The whole Chinese"

   
   

   

5. "There are 89 guns per 100 people in the United States, and if you look at this number, you don't think the gun epidemic in the U.S. is so severe, it's hell on earth, it's hopeless, but you might not be so worried when you look at another data --Only 31 percent of households in the United States have guns.

6. New medical statistics show that a person's life expectancy and this person's adult palm size is closely related, as shown by - palm size is usually short life span, and palm life is long; The truth is,Men usually live shorter lives than women.Men's palms are usually bigger than women's;

7. If I gave you a group of data - the promotion rate in City I is 46.4% and the promotion rate in City II is 40%, which school will you send your child to?

   Of course it's City One!Sorry, you chose the wrong one!Take a look at the table below,Whether it is the promotion rate of arts or science, the city is not in the city two high, but its overall promotion rate is higher than two, you are not mistaken, the data is so magical!

   

8. The average salary of all mayors in the United States is $62,000, while the average mayor's salary is $83,000. In fact, many small cities in the United States do not have a deputy mayor, only a mayor with a low salary,The cities with deputy mayors are larger and richer.

9. This chart, do you feel that this indicator has ups and downs, the overall performance is more stable?

   
   

   

   But in fact, the real performance is double that of 2020 compared to 2019!
   

But the truth is I only got my driver's license last Wednesday and started driving.

A small sample lie is a typical way of lying based on real data by trying to describe the overall situation with a very small sample that does not represent the whole, commonly found in a variety of practical situations

• Company Results:We often see an Internet company's earnings prying paper saying that revenue for an innovative business grew 300 percent in the last quarter.But it won't tell you the exact number,Because this specific figure may be the increase in income from 10,000 to 40,000;

• Resume:I get a lot of resume descriptions that say, "During my time in charge of project XX, I've successfully doubled the number of people using a feature," and I usually keep asking"So how many people will use this feature?"”, many job seekers will often have a standard answer: "Sorry, the company has confidentiality requirements, specific data is not convenient to disclose", ha ha!

• Government publicity:Monaco's government has declared that it is the first country in the world to complete 5G100% coverage. In fact, Monaco is located in the middle of France,The area is only 1.98 square kilometers.

Note: Small sample lies are not limited to using small samples to exaggerate the multiply, there is also the use of small samples to expand the overall range, the following three sentences we feel -

1. China's unbeaten record in the World Cup has been going on for 17 years since the 2002 World Cup defeat in South Korea and Japan

2. Throughout the long history of the World Cup, the Chinese team has lost only three times in total

Even a strong team like Brazil has be beabyned China only once in the World Cup

Because I know a common practice for booksellers is to single out the good parts of the New York Times book review, even if the entire review is negative about the book:

For example, the book review is written"It's a novel that's fascinating in plot, but its vulgar values and contempt for women can only make it a third-rate work..."Booksellers will only print on the cover"It's a novel that's fascinating in plot" - The New York Times，So we should be wary of book reviews from foreign media, especially those with only one sentence.

In 2007, Mr Golud was banned by the Advertising Standards Authority (ASA)."More than 80% of dentists recommend Golud"The reason for this propaganda is that because it is obviously misleading, the data itself is independent and accurate, but it gives consumers the feeling that"The remaining 20% of dentists recommend other brands"and, in fact, it could be"90% of dentists recommend Tian Vii"(I'm casually saying that the report is really a dentist's recommendation for more than one brand)

Looking at another example, some drugmakers might say in their propaganda"Our gastric medicine does not have a side effect on the stomach compared to other gastric drugs of the same type."，It claims to be true, but what it doesn't tell you isIt has no negative effect on the stomach, but it has no negative effect on the liver.

Why many people say: Baidu's earnings news to Tencent to see, and Tencent's financial results to baidu to see, is because the news sent on their own website usually only selectively show the good news.

Now, I finally understand why my high school geography teacher, who often watches X-Ray, is so excited every day!

Zeng Guoxuan led the Xiang Army and Taiping Tianguo war, many times defeated, so Zeng Guoxuan on the book court, playing a fold mentioned "repeated defeats", but by his staff Li Yuandi saw after the "repeated defeats" to "repeated defeats",This change is said to be a good word, because it shows its spirit of courage and fighting,In reality, however, it is used by a large number of people and enterprises to deliberately deceive.

Mr. Hu Shi said that "history is a little girl dressed up", and the truth is not, for example:

"Three accompany women to college during the day", "three accompanying women at night"，This actually describes the same thing, but the narrative from different angles is completely inconsistent.

Once my family LD and honey party went, I was going to send her a message"Honey, you're not here, it's so cold at home!"As a result, the hand trembled"Honey, you're not here, the house is quiet!".......Don't say, my knees on the keyboard are still faintly sore;

The reason why Luo Yonghao and do the evaluation of Wang free to fight Youku, is because Lao Luo think that Wang Free in the evaluation of T1 with a large number of imperceptible tendencies of the expression of the hammer T1 described as a non-conforming product.

"Can I smoke while I pray?" , "No! ";

"Can I pray while I smoke?" Yes.

The public number "Scared Brain Wet" gives an example of how someone describes their Internet operations as:

“He began to build his own private domain traffic, built a huge pool of private domain traffic, and transformed it into a community, focusing on increasing community activity while doing a good job of community operations.” 

And it's actually --

"He used WeChat plus friends, added a lot of friends after pulling them into a WeChat group, usually nothing in the group to send some paragraphs and sand carvings, occasionally send ads"

If I say that"One of my cousins was an extremely good and outstanding girl who graduated from college and managed to get into a top 500 job in the world, and as a newcomer she managed to defuse two public relations crises at one of the company's branches in her first year."

Would you like to know how this excellent young girl did it? I even want her to teach your graduating brother some lessons...

The truth is, my cousin only got a job at McDonald's after graduation, and she did successfully mediate complaints and disputes from diner customers twice.

The next time you come across a similar lie, you just have to say to him - "Say something!" "

An average is only an indicator of an overall, and when the population is relatively evenly distributed, the average is meaningfulWhen it is distributed and uneven, it is not appropriate to try to describe each person's condition with an average, when the median and majority are more representative of the distribution in a sense, the median refers to half of the total is higher than this number, the other half is lower than this number, the majority refers to the largest distribution of the whole number.

Let's look at a practical example, if you dormitory 5 people, ten years after graduation, a person unemployed, monthly salary 0;

A person as a boss, a month a million;

The other three have a monthly income of 60,000;

Everyone's monthly salary is 0, 8, 8, 8, 1 million, the average is 248,000, the median is 80,000, the number of people is also 80,000, obviously, the median of 80,000 and the number of people 80,000 are more able to describe the actual situation of your dormitory.

Well, Jack Ma is so rich, I don't add up as much as Wang Jianlin.

Children who regularly watch tv are observed to be the most violent, and it is directly concluded that television makes children more violent, while another possible reason is that violent children prefer to watch TV.

A typical case in medicineMedical observations found that the rate of recurrence in women treating coronary heart disease using hormone replacement therapy was significantly lower than average.So many doctors think the treatment is certainly better than other treatments, but subsequent randomized medical trials have shown that the treatment is not even as effective as the general treatment, so what is it?

It turned out that because the treatment was cutting-edge and expensive, women who received it generally had a relatively high social and wealth status, and their eating habits were healthy and exercised more than the average person, resulting in a lower recurrence rate than the average person.

To make it clear what causes and effects are related to this problem, I'll give you a chestnutFor example, the number of car accidents in a place is closely related to the performance of black bear attacks, and you may first think that black bear attacks cause car accidents, but in fact they may have four relationships:

• The black bear attack led to a car accident

• The car accident happened in the end the black bear attack

• Car accidents and black bear attacks are caused by third-party factors, such as volcanic eruptions

• The accident had nothing to do with the black bear attack

So don't look at the relevant data and think there must be a causal relationship between themDepartment, we want to carefully analyze the specific reasons and logical relationships behind the foreign countries have a magical website (https://tylervigen.com/) dedicated to collecting that kind of unlikely false correlation, such as this:

"The number of non-commercial space launches in the world is highly related to the number awarded by the American Sociological Doctor"

So why is that? Because there are big structural differences in the overall and partial, and that difference is sometimes used to create lies, in 1991 Michael L. Radelet, a statistician at the University of Colorado, counted the 1976-1987 murders in Florida, USA, and the overall results are as follows:

As a result, the death penalty rate for whites is 11 percent and for blacks 7.9 percent, and there doesn't seem to be racial discrimination in trials, but the truth is not that simple.

If we break down the race of the killer and the victim, the conclusions are completely different, as follows:

Whether the victim is white or black, as long as the killer is black, the death penalty rate is significantly higher than the murderer is white;

What is even more surprising is that when the victim is black and the murderer is white, the death penalty rate is 0, that is, none of the cases have been sentenced.

So how do you avoid getting caught up in the Simpson paradox?

The answer is to be alert to the overall conclusion and view the detailed data through scientific and reasonable grouping.

Statisticians often cite the U.S. Navy's mortality rate of 0.9 percent during the U.S.-Spanish War against Spain, compared with 1.6 percent for New Yorkers over the same period.So the data was cited by the U.S. Navy as a recruitment ad to prove that it's safer to be in the U.S. Navy than to sit at home.

Smart readers must have guessed that the contrast was highly misleading, with healthy adult men enlisting, while the entire population of New York City included the sick and disabled.

Huawei, while promoting its mobile phone P30 Pro, compared the phone's ISO with Canon's two SLR models, so netizens were aware of the release"Bicycles are N times faster than Lamborghinis in times of congestion"to be sarcastic.

Samsung didn't fare much better, and when Huawei's P30 Pro's main camera beat Samsung's S10 Plus on the professional image site DXOMark, Samsung shamelessly posted a picture below, which adds up the ratings of the rear and front cameras to show that it still beats Huawei'

In fact, the overall 0.2% reduction is not an appropriate comparison, because the overall decline is compared to Saturday and Friday data,Weibo's traffic is characterized by lower-than-usual weekends.So a more scientific comparison is that comparing this Saturday and Saturday traffic may never be an intentional lie, but a direct comparison is inappropriate.

So if one day your boss tells you:"I won three games in a row yesterday!" ,Don't marvel at his chess skills, he may have played three sets of king's glory with Ke Jie.

1. Axis Y that does not start at 0

This is the lowest level of image spoofing the easiest means of identification, but in reality is the most widely used, in order to make the picture trend more prominent -

• To show that compliance costs continue to fall, JD.com's Y-axis in its Q2 2019 earnings chart starts at 5% instead of 0:

The decrease in the performance cost rate is obviously woody, but in fact only 1%

2. Deliberately retracted Y-axis

Deliberately lengthening to highlight or narrow data changes, let's look at a typical case in which some climate change opponents draw a map of the average global temperature over a hundred years.

At first glance, global temperatures seem to have been a straight line, and there has been no noticeable change in the god horse, but some environmentalists have drawn another chart of average temperatures, in which we can clearly see the rise in average temperature, which is the truth?

3. Meaningful pie chart

The pie chart was originally intended to give us a clear picture of the proportions of the various parts, but if you put the pie chart down, there will be unexpected results, the following picture from ai Qiyi's official microblog, directly watch Ai Qiyi occupy half of the market share:

Have you found that Apple's share of 19.5% is greater than the "other" 21.2%?

4. Inappropriate schematic：

This image, from Microsoft's Edge browser website, compares its speed to chrome and Firefox, and Edge does lead the way, but the lead on the map is clearly exaggerated.

Well, the above is Weixi summary based on facts and data of the nine "real lies", these lies are so cunning that do not carefully distinguish ordinary people even difficult to detect, and in the process of organizing this article Weixi actually accumulated a lot of very tumultuous cases, due to space reasons can not be presented one by one.

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