Global stock market analysis
Global stock market analysis
A-shares: Northward capital pull effect is significant
Macro Market Review:
Yesterday was the first day of the post-holiday opening, driven by optimism in the external market, the A-share market opened flat. By the close, the Shanghai index was up 1.69 per cent, the Shenzhen composite index was up 2.96 per cent and the GEM was up 3.81 per cent.
The individual we are focusing on today is World Show (600556), a big data-based technology-driven new media marketing service company, established in 2009, the company has experienced all the social media development since the blog era, is the country's oldest and most dedicated company rooted in the red economy.
On the news side: On September 29, Yuhang District in the third quarter of 2020 major projects "cloud signing" activities, "Net Red City" project signed landing. This is Yuhang District to create a live e-commerce ecosystem of another "force."
It is reported that the total investment of the project is about 6 billion yuan, the future will not only be an industrial base to build a new economy of the red people, but also through the large-scale live scene consumption, IRED network red college, iMSocial network red studio cluster, West Fifth Street lifestyle center, Crowley summit, net red park and large-scale red people events and other six functions implanted, to become the red people of China's new economic industry most expected central city.
"We look forward to undertaking the national head digital economy industry in Yuhang District, so that China's red economy in Yuhang deep cultivation and expansion, to build here to master the absolute head advantage of the national network red industry net red city."
Peng Weishuo, a representative of the signatory of the "Net Red City" project and vice president of Beijing World Show Technology Co., Ltd., expressed his admiration for Yuhang's digital highlands and spoke warmly about his eager anticipation for the future of the project.
Performance and share price levels: New media marketing is a major contributor to the company's revenue. We believe that the high growth of the company's new media marketing business is sustainable: in the short term,
1) THE penetration rate of KOL marketing market still has a lot of room for improvement, the future advertisers in KOL market will increase the intensity of delivery, the amount of KOL marketing is expected to exceed 75 billion yuan in 2020, a year-on-year growth rate of 54%;
2) With the needs of social media users tend to diversify, the company in the procurement of media resources is also flexible to traffic more clustered short video field;
3) The company continued to strengthen its investment in platform technology research and development, with research and development spending reaching 53.22 million in 2019, up 37.45 percent year-on-year.
The additional funds raised in July 2020 are also mainly used to increase the construction and upgrading of platform big data systems, which will help strengthen the competitive barriers of companies by consolidating their technological advantages. In the medium to long term:
1) The company's upstream and downstream concentration is low, compared with traditional advertising companies in the production chain has a stronger voice, gross margin is also more considerable;
2) The impact of macroeconomics on the advertising industry is also turning a corner, KOL marketing as a high-growth track in the advertising industry will get excess growth.
At the same time, in terms of stock prices, according to recent data, the overall trend of the company's share price is consistent with the overall trend of the broader market, due to the overall weakness of the market before the festival, so the overall trend of the stock price before the festival, today with the opening of the market, the company's share price also showed a steady upward trend
Overall: We expect the company's 2020-2022 operating income to be 33.6, 55.2, 8.67 billion yuan, net profit of 3.9, 6.1, 9. 400 million yuan, corresponding epS is 0.23, 0.36, 0.56 yuan, corresponding to 2020-2022 PE is 81X, 52X, 34X.
We recommend that you keep an eye on the company's stock. We should also pay attention to the impact of risk factors such as better-than-expected regulation of social platforms in China, lower-than-expected business development, higher-than-expected price increases in media resources, and increased market competition.
Driven by optimism in the peripheral markets, A-shares showed signs of opening higher today. Our analysts think about this. As this month is in the traditional "golden nine silver ten" range, coupled with rising risk aversion in the peripheral market led to the outflow of funds from the peripheral market. The broader market is expected to continue to rise this month, driven by an influx of peripheral funds. Therefore, we recommend that investors invest in A-shares this month.
Hong Kong stocks: PV concept full withdrawal
Macro Market Review:
Under the influence of consolidation factors, the market fell today. By the close, the Hang Seng index was down 0.31 per cent at 24,119 points, up 2.81 per cent in the past five days, while the technology index was down 0.1 per cent at 7,503.
The stock we're going to focus on today is Junshi Bio (1877. HK), a high-tech biology company that focuses on the development and manufacture of new drugs and vaccine products.
On October 7, the company announced interim data for the combined treatment of mild and moderate COVID-19 patients in its SARS-CoV-2 and antibody programs. Because interim data from clinical trials show that the combined use of two SARS-CoV-2-medium antibodies can reduce viral load in the body, reduce associated symptoms, and reduce the risk of hospitalization and emergency care.
The exploratory analysis showed that the proportion of patients with higher viral loads in the combined treatment group was significantly lower (3.0%) on the 7th day than in the placebo group (20.8%). In addition, patients treated in the combined treatment had a lower rate of hospitalization or emergency care (0.9 per cent) and a relative risk reduction of 84.5 per cent (p=0.049) compared to the placebo group (5.8 per cent).
Therefore, in order to provide patients with access to the drug as soon as possible, even if there is no data to suggest that these two antibody therapies may become effective COVID-19 therapies, the two antibodies are still being invested in large-scale production.
For monotherapy, the company expects to provide more than 1 million doses of 700mg of LY-CoV555 for monotherapy in the fourth quarter of 2020, of which 100,000 doses are likely to be available in October. As for combination therapy, it is expected that 50,000 doses of the antibody will be available in the fourth quarter of 2020. Starting in the first quarter of 2021, the company is likely to significantly increase the availability of combination therapies.
Performance and share price levels: among the two meso-antibodies that the company recently tested. LY-CoV555 is the company's co-development with AbCellera for the prevention and treatment of COVID-19's medium antibodies.
LY-CoV016 (also known as JS016) is Lilly's co-operation with Regency Bio, the Institute of Microbiology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences for COVID-19's median antibody, and its overseas interests are granted to the company, which receives a down payment of $10 million, not exceeding the milestone payment of $245 million, plus a double-digit percentage of net sales of the product.
Overall: Overall, the Company's 2020-2022 EPS is expected to be RMB-0.73/-0.37/-0.10, respectively. The company's cooperation with the Institute of Microbiology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Lilly's new crown and antibody in clinical trials showed good results, reflecting the company's high efficiency of research and development, if the product can be successfully listed, will be expected to thicken the company's performance. Therefore, we recommend that you keep an eye on the company's stock. At the same time, attention needs to be paid
1) New crown and antibody and research and development progress in the pipeline is not as expected;
2) The price reduction of Terripley single-resistant products exceeded expectations;
3) The impact of risk factors such as Terripley monolithic resistance and the inability of future products to enter health insurance.
Overall, Hong Kong stocks have fallen in the last two days, although our analysts believe this is only part of the consolidation. Hong Kong stocks are expected to rise steadily in the future as A-shares rise and China's economy recovers.
However, attention still needs to be paid to the adverse effects of risk factors from peripheral markets. Comprehensive analysis, it is expected that hong Kong stocks as a whole this month will shake up. We continue to advise investors to keep an eye on it.
U.S. stocks: The three major indexes closed higher
Macro Market Review:
On Friday, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher, with the Nasdaq up more than 1 percent. By the close, the Dow was up 0.57 per cent, the Nasdaq was up 1.39 per cent and the Standard and Poor's 500 index was up 0.88 per cent.
The stock we're focusing on today is Twitter (TWTR), one of the world's leading social media technology and one of the main battles in the U.S. election.
On the news: Square, the payments company founded by Twitter's chief executive, announced on Thursday that it had purchased 4,709 bitcoins and invested about $50 million, or 1 percent of the company's total assets.
"Square believes that cryptocurrencies are an economic empowerment tool and provide a way to participate in the global monetary system, which is consistent with the company's purpose," the company said in a statement. "
Results and share prices: Recent earnings reports show that the company's gross profit has continued to decline compared with previous quarters, while its net profit was negative in the previous quarter.
From this point of view, although the company's news that it is beginning to move into new areas, but its earnings show that the company is still in a business contraction.
And in terms of share prices, Twitter has been a hot race since October, when the U.S. presidential election began to heat up, according to data.
Affected by this, from the beginning of this month, the stock trend began to appear a strong volatility situation. In this case, the money-making effect of the stock began to continue to decline, and investor returns were generally in a state of decline
Taken together, although the news that the company is ready to enter the virtual digital currency sector, but the financial data is difficult to hide its current business momentum.
At the same time, under the influence of the U.S. election factors, the overall trend of the stock has been strongly volatile, investment prospects also appear uncertain. As a result, our analysts find the stock's forecast outlook difficult to predict. To do this, we advise investors to be cautious about the company's stock.
Risky mood swings have depressed the dollar since U.S. President Donald Trump halted negotiations with Democrats on a new stimulus package on Tuesday, but then pushed for more targeted independent stimulus legislation to be approved.
In response, our analysts believe investors have been betting that Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden is more likely to win the November 3 U.S. election, and that a bigger fiscal stimulus would be more likely if the Democrats win, which would weaken the dollar. As a result, U.S. stocks are expected to have a difficult outlook. To this end, we advise investors to be cautious about investing in U.S. stocks.
AUS: Technology stocks led the gains
Macro Market Review:
The ASX200 index rose 0.16 points to a five-week high of 6102.2 for the fifth day in a row. It was the longest winning streak in seven consecutive days since June 7.
The stocks we are focusing on today are CIMIC Group, an international contractor primarily active in telecommunications, civil engineering, construction and real estate.
On the news: CIMIC Group is working with the Australian government to accelerate the pace of mining, services and construction projects to support its customers and generate sustainable cash-backed profits.
As of September, CIMIC expects to bid or bid about A$25 billion for the rest of the year, based on COVID-19 and the A$525 billion project that will hit the market in 2021 and beyond.
"Looking ahead, investment in infrastructure will make an important contribution to the recovery of COVID-19, and we are encouraged by our large investment plans in the areas in which we operate," said Fernández Verdes, Executive Chairman of CIMIC Group.
Performance and share price: CIMIC's operating cash flow has weakened over the past 12 months, from A$1.16 billion a year earlier to A$922 million at the end of September, a 21 per cent decline, according to the company's earnings report.
At the same time, the company said it temporarily increased liquidity to "mitigate any potential impact of COVID-19", increasing total debt to A$5.3 billion at the end of September from A$923 million a year earlier.
In terms of share prices, according to statistics, the company's share price is generally in keeping with the broader market. The overall trend of the stock in the last month was basically flat.
The stock began to show a volatile upward trend earlier this month as the broader market began to rise and under the influence of stimulus policies. As a result, our analysts believe there is room for the stock to rise against this backdrop. We therefore recommend that we continue to pay attention to the company's stock.
Taken together, although the company experienced a decline in cash flow in the first half of the year under the influence of the outbreak, the company's earnings data are expected to gradually improve in the second half as the economy begins to recover in the second half of the year.
In addition, we expect that the company will be able to obtain some policy support more easily as a result of the information that the company has a long-term relationship with the Government. Therefore, we believe that the company's stock will continue to rise, investors are advised to continue to pay attention.
Overall, the trend of the Australian stock market and the trend of the United States stock market generally converse. But it is also closely linked to local economic trends in Australia. With the introduction of the stimulus plan in the second half of the year and the emergence of economic recovery expectations, the Australian stock market is expected to continue to be positively related to the trend of U.S. stocks, but the overall performance will be more stable.
Therefore, we recommend that investors invest in Australian stocks as safe-haven products related to US stocks. It is recommended to keep an eye on it.
BOC International Securities（A股）
Sina Finance (Hong Kong Shares)
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