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On June 23rd Group Global released the 2020 mid-year edition of This Year, Next Year: Global Media Industry Forecasts.
Overall industry outlook:
- As a result of the new crown outbreak, global advertising spending growth will slow sharply from 6.2% in 2019 to -11.8% in 2020 (excluding U.S. election ads);
- Given the extent to which global GDP has been affected by the outbreak, this year's decline in advertising could be considered "moderate", with global GDP falling more sharply than it was during the global financial crisis in 2009. Global GDP fell by 1% in 2009, but the global advertising industry is estimated to have fallen by 11.2% that year.
- The good news is that the world's top 10 advertising markets are expected to grow by 2021, with half of them seeing double-digit growth.
This year's mid-year report provides a detailed analysis of four sub-sectors:Digital Derivatives:For the first time, the report uses "digital derivation" to describe the digital business of traditional media, listing this metric to show how much overlap between traditional and digital advertising across media types.Digital derivatives of television, radio, print media and outdoor advertising are expected to reach $31 billion in 2020, accounting for 13% of total advertising spending (up from $22 billion, or 7% five years ago). The digital derivatives of outdoor advertising are the most significant, with $9 billion expected this year, or 31 per cent of outdoor advertising. The digital derivatives of traditional televisions are $12 billion, or 9%.Digital ads:Global digital advertising spending is expected to fall by 2.3% in 2020. The move follows nearly a decade of double-digit growth in digital advertising, including more than 20% global growth over the years.Digital advertising will account for 52% of the market in 2020, up from 48% in 2019 and 44% in 2018. The pace of market share growth will slow in the future and is expected to increase by only 1% to 2% per year.The report also lists search ads from digital ads. Global search advertising revenue fell 2.6 percent to $109 billion in 2020. Other forms of digital advertising revenue are expected to be $172 billion (excluding digital derivatives of traditional media), a slightly lower decline of 0.6 per cent.TV ads:It is expected to fall by 17.6 per cent in 2020 (excluding US election advertising) and to recover slightly to 5.9 per cent next year.Digital extensions and related media, including traditional media streaming services, as well as Hulu and Roku, are expected to improve significantly, with growth expected to be 3.7 per cent this year, or about 9 per cent of total TV spending this year, and 11.3 per cent next year.Television advertising's share of the overall market, including its digital extension, is expected to be 27 per cent in 2020, down from 37 per cent a decade ago.Outdoor advertising:It is expected to fall by 25 per cent (including digital outdoor media), but should pick up next year, with a growth rate of 14.9 per cent.Looking ahead to 2021, outdoor advertising will grow at a lower rate, and while we expect big brands to generally increase their budgets for outdoor media, the overall share of outdoor advertising in the overall market will decline slightly.China Market This Year, Next Year: Media Industry Forecasts will be released in July, and the report will analyze and forecast the trend of China's advertising market and major media types this year and next."Connecting Digital Commerce Wins in Digital Marketing" Bull-eared ®, more understanding of marketing technology business reports Business consulting, resource docking, business cooperation, live lessons,Instructor applicationMobile phone number / WeChat ID: 13051575215
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